How to Bet on Baseball

Moneyline Betting

The moneyline is the simplest way to bet on baseball. You are just picking which team you think will win the game, straight up. The outcome of your bet depends solely on the final score.

MLB moneyline odds are typically displayed using American odds, which are centered around the number 100.

• The Favorite: The team expected to win will have a minus sign (-) next to its odds. This number indicates how much you need to wager to win $100. For example, if the New York Yankees are listed at -150, you must bet $150 to win $100 (for a total return of $250).
• The Underdog: The team less likely to win will have a plus sign (+) next to its odds. This number shows how much you will win for every $100 you bet. For instance, if the Boston Red Sox are +130, a $100 bet would win you $130 (for a total return of $230). 

Run Line Betting

The run line is baseball’s version of the point spread, adding a handicap to create more balanced odds between the favorite and the underdog. Many betting data platforms use run line stats to provide accurate, real-time insights, helping bettors make informed decisions.

• The Favorite (-1.5): If you bet on the favorite, they must win the game by 2 or more runs for your bet to cash. For example, if you bet on the Los Angeles Dodgers at -1.5, they need to win by a score of 5-3, 7-2, etc.
• The Underdog (+1.5): If you bet on the underdog, your bet wins if they win the game outright OR if they lose by only 1 run. For example, a bet on the Arizona Diamondbacks at +1.5 wins if they win 4-3 or lose 4-5.

Total Betting (Over/Under)

Total betting, also known as the Over/Under, involves wagering on the combined number of runs scored by both teams in a game. The sportsbook will set a line, and you bet on whether the final total will be over or under that number.

For example, if the total for a game between the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers is set at 8.5 runs:

• Over 8.5: Your bet wins if the combined score is 9 or more (e.g., 5-4, 7-3).
• Under 8.5: Your bet wins if the combined score is 8 or less (e.g., 4-3, 2-1).

First Five Innings Betting

A popular variation is the “first five innings” or “F5” bet. This market treats the first five innings of the game as a separate contest. You can place moneyline, run line, or total bets based only on the score after five complete innings.

Why is this popular? It isolates the starting pitchers. In modern baseball, bullpens play a huge role, and a strong starter’s effort can be undone by a weak relief corps. F5 betting allows you to focus your wager on the most predictable part of the game—the head-to-head matchup between the two starters.

Futures Odds

Futures bets are wagers on outcomes that will be decided in the distant future. Instead of betting on a single game, you are betting on a season-long result. Common MLB futures bets include:

• World Series Champion: Picking the team that will win the championship.
• League Pennant Winner: Betting on who will win the American League or National League.
• Division Winner: Wagering on the team that will finish first in their division.
• Player Awards: Betting on who will win MVP, Cy Young, or Rookie of the Year.

Do Your Research Before Betting

This is the golden rule of any form of sports betting. The more you know, the better your chances. For baseball, this means going beyond basic team stats.

The starting pitcher is the single most important factor in a baseball game. Look at their recent form, ERA (Earned Run Average), WHIP (Walks and Hits per Inning Pitched), and their history against the opposing team. A team’s ace pitcher can make them a favorite even against a much stronger lineup.

Focus on Moneylines and Run Lines

While props and parlays can be exciting, the core of profitable baseball betting often lies in the fundamental markets. Moneylines and run lines offer the most straightforward value. Because baseball is a low-scoring game, upsets are common, and underdogs on the moneyline can be very profitable.

Run lines offer an alternative when you feel confident about a favorite’s ability to win decisively or an underdog’s ability to keep a game close. This adds another layer to your analysis and can unlock value where moneyline odds are prohibitive.

Look for Value Bets

Successful betting isn’t about picking the most winners; it’s about finding value. A value bet is a wager where you believe the probability of an outcome is greater than the probability implied by the sportsbook’s odds.

For example, if the odds on a team are +150, that implies they have a 40% chance of winning (100 / (150 + 100)). If your research leads you to believe their actual chance of winning is closer to 50%, you have found a value bet. Many professional bettors rely on a custom sports betting API to build models that automatically flag potential value bets across hundreds of games.

Manage Your Bankroll Wisely

This is arguably the most important strategy of all. Bankroll management is the practice of allocating your betting funds in a disciplined way to withstand losing streaks and maximize growth.

• Set a Budget: Decide on a total amount of money you are willing to risk over a season (your bankroll). This should be money you can afford to lose.
• Use a Staking Plan: A common strategy is flat betting, where you wager the same amount on every game, typically 1-3% of your total bankroll. This prevents you from losing a large portion of your funds on a single bad bet.

Consider Live or In-Game Betting

Live betting allows you to place wagers on a game after it has started, with odds that update in real-time. This can be a powerful tool for savvy bettors. If you notice a starting pitcher looks off their game early or a team’s offense seems to have a good approach, you can capitalize on these observations before the market fully adjusts. 

Live betting also provides opportunities to “middle” or hedge your pre-game bets to lock in a profit or minimize a potential loss. Developing robust in-game models is a goal for many advanced bettors, often turning to top baseball API providers for the fastest and most reliable live data feeds.